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MMS ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES PROGRAM: ONGOING STUDIES |
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MMS OCS Region: |
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Planning Area: |
Gulfwide |
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Title: |
MAG-PLAN Modification: |
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Total Cost: $451,402.00 |
Period of Performance: FY 2009-2011 |
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Conducting Organization: |
Eastern Research Group, Inc. |
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MMS Contact: |
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Description: Background: MMS
maintains an OCS Economic Impact Model (EIM) called MAG-PLAN to provide a
consistent bureau-wide approach to estimating employment, personal income,
and similar economic impacts from OCS activities. MAG-PLAN is a Microsoft Access-based,
2-stage model that uses OCS-specific “cost functions” to estimate the
industry expenditures required (by industry sector and onshore incidence of
spending) to complete a given activity, such as drilling an exploration well
or operating a production facility.
The second stage uses general economic multipliers from the commercial
economic modeling system IMPLAN to forecast employment, personal income, and
other variables resulting from the initial industry expenditures. Obtaining data at the appropriate level of detail for
the different activity functions has proven to be difficult. Researchers developed many of these data
largely in-house, with only limited documentation, and by using data supplied
through MMS studies. No publically or
commercially available data source contains all of the data needed for the
model. Also, the model exhibits
software-related problems that make it unstable and easily corrupted. MMS seeks professionals with expertise to
update activity function data, to refine the methodology used to distribute
industry expenditures onshore, to refine and test MAG-PLAN software, and to
resolve the software issues that have been encountered running the model. MMS initiated two parallel efforts to help address these issues and provide information and technical support for this MAG-PLAN modification. First, a current ongoing study will provide useful information on offshore expenditure patterns for contracted services, and their allocation onshore by certain sectors. To prevent duplication of effort, this information will be shared with the MAG-PLAN Modification contractor as it becomes available. Second, MMS has created a Modeling Review Board (MRB) to assist in the technical oversight of this MAG-PLAN modification effort. The MRB consists of a group of consultants who will provide expert advice to MMS regarding all aspects of this contract. The MRB will provide expertise in evaluating the review and testing of the actual model, suggest possible improvements and solutions to problems, and provide review and comments on all deliverables. |
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Objectives: The objective of the MAG-PLAN Modification study is to
strengthen and refine the Bureau’s procedures for estimating the onshore
economic effects from OCS-related activities, by improving the current
MAG-PLAN model. |
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Methods: This project will involve
coordinating three linked but separate research efforts: (1) the identification and collection of
industry expenditure data; (2) testing and streamlining MAG-PLAN
functionality; and (3) documentation of all efforts. Specifically, the methods involved are as
follows: 1.
Sensitivity
analysis of expenditure data in the current model to determine the influence
of various data on model outputs. 2.
Collection
of industry expenditure data for various activity functions, which includes thorough
investigation of all public and commercially available data sources, as well
as any additional sources identified. 3.
Creation
of new activity functions for FPSO systems; subsea tiebacks/well completions
and seismic exploration. 4.
Update
sector allocation codes for onshore distribution of industry expenditures 5.
Structuring
model outputs to improve onshore distributions at the county/parish level. Streamlining the model would include, but not be limited to the following: simplify the current methodology for entering user-defined onshore impact areas; create a single screen that includes all the steps required to run the model; compress existing water depth categories; and revise the model so that E&D Scenarios are not forced to include drill depth categories, but retain the option to include them at the user’s discretion. |
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Products: MAG-PLAN Economic Impact Model, User Manual and Comprehensive Report |
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Importance to MMS: Modification of MAG-PLAN by improving data inputs as well as testing and streamlining the model, will substantially increase the accuracy of MAG-PLAN outputs and the efficiency of using it. This will aid broader MMS efforts to understand the local and regional consequences of the program as industry activities expand or contract and will support planning, decision making and environmental assessments related to the management of mineral resources on the OCS. |
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Current Status: Study awarded September 2009. |
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Final Report Due: |
August 2011 |
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Publications: |
N/A |
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Affiliated WWW Sites: |
N/A |
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Revised date: |
September 2009 |
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ESPIS |
ESPIS
- All completed ESP Studies: |
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